A Long History of Recessions |
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Name |
Dates |
Duration |
Time since previous recession |
Characteristics |
| Late 2000s recession | Dec 2007 – ? | ? | 6 years,1 month | The subprime mortgage crisis led to the collapse of the United States housing bubble. Falling housing-related assets contributed to a global financial crisis, even as oil and food prices soared. The crisis led to the failure or collapse of many of the United States’ largest financial institutions: Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers and AIG, as well as a crisis in the automobile industry. The government responded with an unprecedented $700 billion bank bailout and $787 billion fiscal stimulus package. A growing number of economists believed the recession may have ended in the fall of 2009. Indeed, GDP grew robustly in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2009 but unemployment has not begun to recede. |
| Early 2000s recession | Mar – Nov 2001 | 8 months | 10 years | The 1990s were the longest period of growth in American history. The collapse of the speculative dot-com bubble, a fall in business outlays and investments, and the September 11th attacks, brought the decade of growth to an end. Despite these major shocks, the recession was brief and shallow. Without the September 11th attacks the economy may have avoided recession altogether. |
| Early 1990s recession | July 1990 – Mar 1991 | 8 months | 7 years, 8 months | After the lengthy peacetime expansion of the 1980s, inflation began to increase and the Federal Reserve responded by raising interest rates from 1986 to 1989. This weakened but did not stop growth, but some combination of the subsequent 1990 oil price shock, the debt accumulation of the 1980s, new banking regulations following the S&L Crisis and growing consumer pessimism combined with the weakened economy to produce a brief recession. |
| Early 1980s recession | July 1981 – Nov 1982 | 1 year, 4 months | 1 year | The Iranian Revolution sharply increased the price of oil around the world in 1979, causing the 1979 energy crisis. This was caused by the new regime in power in Iran, which exported oil at inconsistent intervals and at a lower volume, forcing prices up. Tight monetary policy in the United States to control inflation led to another recession. The changes were made largely because of inflation carried over from the previous decade because of the 1973 oil crisis and the 1979 energy crisis. |
| 1980 recession | Jan – July 1980 | 6 months | 4 years, 10 months | The NBER considers a short recession to have occurred in 1980, followed by a short period of growth and then a deep recession. Unemployment remained relatively elevated in between recessions. The recession began as the Federal Reserve, under Paul Volcker raised interest rates dramatically to fight the inflation of the 1970s. The early ‘80s are sometimes referred to as a “double-dip” or “W-shaped” recession. |
| 1973 – 75 recession | Nov 1973 – Mar 1975 | 1 year, 4 months | 3 years | A quadrupling of oil prices by OPEC coupled with high government spending because of the Vietnam War led to stagflation in the United States. The period was also marked by the 1973 oil crisis and the 1973 — 1974 stock market crash. The period is remarkable for rising unemployment coinciding with rising inflation. |
| Recession of ‘69 – ‘70 | Dec 1969 – Nov 1970 | 11 months | 8 years, 10 months | The relatively mild 1969 recession followed a lengthy expansion. At the end of the expansion inflation was rising, possibly a result of increased deficits. This relatively mild recession coincided with an attempt to start closing the budget deficits of the Vietnam War (fiscal tightening) and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates (monetary tightening). |
| Recession of ‘60 – ‘61 | Apr 1960 – Feb 1961 | 10 months | 2 years | Another primarily monetary recession occurred after the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in 1959.
The government switched from deficit (or 2.6% in 1959) to surplus (of 0.1% in 1960). When the economy emerged from this short recession it began the second longest period of growth in NBER history. |
| Recession of 1958 | Aug 1957 – April 1958 | 8 months | 3 years, 3 months | Monetary policy was tightened during the two years preceding 1957, followed by an easing of policy at the end of 1957. The budget balance resulted in a change in budget surplus of 0.8% of GDP in 1957 to a budget deficit of 0.6% of GDP in 1958, and then to 2.6% of GDP in 1959. |
| Recession of 1953 | July 1953 – May 1954 | 10 months | 3 years, 9 months | After a post-Korean War inflationary period, more funds were transferred to national security. In 1951, the Federal Reserve reasserted its independence from the U.S. Treasury and in 1952, the Federal Reserve changed monetary policy to be more restrictive because of fears of further inflation or of a bubble forming. |
| Recession of 1949 | Nov 1948 – Oct 1949 | 11 months | 3 years, 1 month | The 1948 recession was a brief economic downturn; forecasters of the time expected much worse, perhaps influenced by the poor economy in their recent lifetime. The recession began shortly after President Truman’s “Fair Deal” economic reforms. The recession also followed a period of monetary tightening. |
| Recession of 1945 | Feb – Oct 1945 | 8 months | 6 years, 8 months | The decline in government spending at the end of World War II led to an enormous drop in gross domestic product making this technically a recession. This was the result of demobilization and the shift from a wartime to peacetime economy. The post-war years were unusual in a number of ways (unemployment was never high) and this era may be considered a “sui generis end-of-the-war recession”. |
| Recession of 1937 | May 1937 – June 1938 | 1 year, 1 month | 4 years, 2 months | The Recession of 1937 is only considered minor when compared to the Great Depression, but is otherwise among the worst recessions of the 20th century. Three explanations are offered for the recession: that tight fiscal policy from an attempt to balance the budget after the expansion of the New Deal caused recession, that tight monetary policy from the Federal Reserve caused the recession, or that declining profits for businesses led to a reduction in investment. |
| Great Depression | Aug 1929 – Mar 1933 | 3 years, 7 months | 1 year, 9 months | Stock markets crashed worldwide. A banking collapse took place in the United States. Extensive new tariffs and other factors contributed to an extremely deep depression. Although sometimes dated as lasting until World War II, the U.S. economy was growing again by 1933, and technically the United States was not in recession from 1933 to 1937. |
| 1926 – 27 recession | Oct 1926 –Nov 1927 | 1 year, 1 month | 2 years, 3 months | This was an unusual and mild recession, thought to be caused largely because Henry Ford closed production in his factories for six months to switch from production of the Model T to the Model A. Charles P. Kindleberger says the period from 1925 to the start of the Great Depression is best thought of as a boom, and this minor recession just proof that the boom “was not general, uninterrupted or extensive”. |
| 1923 – 24 recession | May 1923 – June 1924 | 1 year, 2 months | 2 years | From the depression of 1920–21 until the Great Depression, an era dubbed the Roaring Twenties, the economy was generally expanding. Industrial production declined in 1923–24, but on the whole this was a mild recession. |
| Depression of ‘20 – ‘21 | Jan 1920 – July 1921 | 1 year, 6 months | 10 months | The 1921 recession began a mere 10 months after the post-World War I recession, as the economy continued working through the shift to a peacetime economy. The recession was short but extremely painful. The year 1920 was the single most deflationary year in American History; production, however, did not fall as much as might be expected from the deflation. GNP may have declined between 2.5 and 7 percent, even as wholesale prices declined by 36.8%.
The economy had a strong recovery following the recession.. |
| Post-World War I recession | Aug 1918 –March 1919 | 7 months | 3 years, 8 months | This was a brief but very sharp recession and was caused by the end of wartime production, along with an influx of labor from returning troops. This in turn caused high unemployment. |
| Recession of ‘13 – ‘14 | Jan 1913 – Dec 1914 | 1 year, 11 months | 1 year | Productions and real income declined during this period and were not offset until the start of World War I increased demand. Incidentally, the Federal Reserve Act was signed during this recession, creating the Federal Reserve System, the culmination of a sequence of events following the Panic of 1907. |
| Panic of ‘10 – ‘11 | Jan 1910 – Jan 1912 | 2 years | 1 year, 7 months | This was a mild but lengthy recession. The national product grew by less than 1%, and commercial activity and industrial activity declined. The period was also marked by deflation. |
| Panic of 1907 | May 1907 – June 1908 | 1 year, 1 month | 2 years, 9 months | A run on Knickerbocker Trust Company deposits on October 22, 1907, set events in motion that would lead to a severe monetary contraction. The fallout from the panic led to Congress creating the Federal Reserve System.. |
| 1902 – 04 recession | Sep 1902 – Aug 1904 | 1 year, 11 months | 1 year, 9 months | Though not severe, this downturn lasted for nearly two years and saw a distinct decline in the national product. Industrial and commercial production both declined, albeit fairly modestly. The recession came about a year after a 1901 stock crash. |
| 1899 – 1900 recession | June 1899 –Dec 1900 | 1 year, 6 months | 2 years | This was a mild recession in the period of general growth beginning after 1897. Evidence for a recession in this period does not show up in some annual data series. |
| Source: Wikepedia | ||||
This article originally appeared in The Business Owner Journal, the periodical of choice for owners of small and midsize private businesses. All rights reserved, D.L. Perkins LLC. © 2012.
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